Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses Using New Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data

The US fertility transition in the nineteenth century is unusual. Not only did it start from a very high level and early nation’s development, but also took place long before mortality transition, industrialization, urbanization. This paper assembles new county-level, household-level, individual-level data, including complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of 1830–1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for nineteenth-century American transition. We construct cross-sectional models net currently-married white couples census years test results with subset linked between 1850–1860, 1860–1870, 1870–1880 censuses. find evidence marital control consistent hypotheses as 1830. indicate support several complementary decline, land availability, conventional structuralist, ideational, child demand/quality-quantity tradeoff, life cycle savings theories.